Hollywood, and by extension "the movies", is in trouble.
Watching the entertainment industry implode this year as COVID-19 has ravaged the country and made us all shut-ins among all the shut-downs has been a fascinating look at the crisis in a microcosm. We've talked about theatrical windows and theatres being in trouble for years. Hollywood has become an Orobus, eating their own tail. The big, tent pole titles are essential elements to a studio's survival. Studios spend more and more money marketing their big, tent pole titles. Theatres are dependent upon those big, tent pole titles doing well and keeping them afloat, but fight over how large a slice of the pie the studios take and how long they have to make money before that same big, tent pole title goes streaming.
And then the unthinkable happens. One of those tent poles underperforms, sending ripples throughout the entire industry, forcing the studios to spend MORE money marketing the next big, tent pole title to shore things up...
We were all kinda waiting for the next failure. Spielberg himself said the entire film industry is only two back to back bombs away from collapsing, and we all watch, waiting.
And then the truly unthinkable happens. Theatres close. The pandemic shuts it down, everything from filming to distribution. And we wait. And wait. And wait...
And a couple of studios say, "hey, we have an outlet for this, it's just not theatrical. Let's try releasing it that way and recouping some money that we spend marketing it!" To which the theatres cry foul over being cut out of the loop all together. Universal brings Trolls: World Tour to families cooped up in quarantine. Theatres respond with threats to NOT show Universal titles including Jurassic World 3 next year. The House of Mouse decides to create an additional "premium" paywall for the Mulan remake on Disney+, and the theatres... well the theatres say nothing because Disney owns just about everything anyway and they're too big to fight.
The pandemic worsens, studios shuffle release dates like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, theatres close indefinitely, and suddenly all those big, tent pole titles the studios rely on are no longer big tent poles, but big negatives on the studio ledger sheet. They COST money, but didn't MAKE money.
One thing is abundantly clear: the industry was not, and is not equipped to handle a disaster like this. Beyond the fact that even releasing these films on streaming platforms (weather the studios own them, like Pixar's Soul going to Disney+, or selling them Sony/MGM asking for 600 million dollars to bypass theatres with the streaming rights to the Bond flick No Time To Die) is NOT making them the money these films NEED to make, studios are in a bind in that there was a shutdown from the pandemic on things that were currently in production. Which means that even if we got back to normal tomorrow, there would suddenly be ANOTHER hole in the programing schedule once the content that is already produced has run its course but before the new content is available.
Or worse, the fact that studios are continuing to make deals and produce new content. Think about it. They have to proceed with business as usual, buying books to adapt, casting new television series and movies, etc... but may not have anyway to release the content if the theatres are gone, even with their digital distribution hubs. And if theatres do survive, who's to say audiences are ready to return?
The outlook is bleak, and anyway you slice it, the industry is about to change...
Watching the entertainment industry implode this year as COVID-19 has ravaged the country and made us all shut-ins among all the shut-downs has been a fascinating look at the crisis in a microcosm. We've talked about theatrical windows and theatres being in trouble for years. Hollywood has become an Orobus, eating their own tail. The big, tent pole titles are essential elements to a studio's survival. Studios spend more and more money marketing their big, tent pole titles. Theatres are dependent upon those big, tent pole titles doing well and keeping them afloat, but fight over how large a slice of the pie the studios take and how long they have to make money before that same big, tent pole title goes streaming.
And then the unthinkable happens. One of those tent poles underperforms, sending ripples throughout the entire industry, forcing the studios to spend MORE money marketing the next big, tent pole title to shore things up...
We were all kinda waiting for the next failure. Spielberg himself said the entire film industry is only two back to back bombs away from collapsing, and we all watch, waiting.
And then the truly unthinkable happens. Theatres close. The pandemic shuts it down, everything from filming to distribution. And we wait. And wait. And wait...
And a couple of studios say, "hey, we have an outlet for this, it's just not theatrical. Let's try releasing it that way and recouping some money that we spend marketing it!" To which the theatres cry foul over being cut out of the loop all together. Universal brings Trolls: World Tour to families cooped up in quarantine. Theatres respond with threats to NOT show Universal titles including Jurassic World 3 next year. The House of Mouse decides to create an additional "premium" paywall for the Mulan remake on Disney+, and the theatres... well the theatres say nothing because Disney owns just about everything anyway and they're too big to fight.
The pandemic worsens, studios shuffle release dates like rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic, theatres close indefinitely, and suddenly all those big, tent pole titles the studios rely on are no longer big tent poles, but big negatives on the studio ledger sheet. They COST money, but didn't MAKE money.
One thing is abundantly clear: the industry was not, and is not equipped to handle a disaster like this. Beyond the fact that even releasing these films on streaming platforms (weather the studios own them, like Pixar's Soul going to Disney+, or selling them Sony/MGM asking for 600 million dollars to bypass theatres with the streaming rights to the Bond flick No Time To Die) is NOT making them the money these films NEED to make, studios are in a bind in that there was a shutdown from the pandemic on things that were currently in production. Which means that even if we got back to normal tomorrow, there would suddenly be ANOTHER hole in the programing schedule once the content that is already produced has run its course but before the new content is available.
Or worse, the fact that studios are continuing to make deals and produce new content. Think about it. They have to proceed with business as usual, buying books to adapt, casting new television series and movies, etc... but may not have anyway to release the content if the theatres are gone, even with their digital distribution hubs. And if theatres do survive, who's to say audiences are ready to return?
The outlook is bleak, and anyway you slice it, the industry is about to change...
